Freshness note: This analysis was last updated 28 days ago. Fast-moving policy claims can change quickly, so check for newer official updates before relying on this verdict.

Mixed Evidencepublic_safety

Trump claimed the crime rate is now the lowest it's been since 1900, spanning 125 years

Published February 17, 2026Updated February 17, 2026

Summary

Crime rates in the United States have declined significantly in recent years according to FBI data, with violent crime reaching levels comparable to the early 1960s. However, the claim of the lowest rate since 1900 lacks support from complete historical data, as comprehensive nationwide crime statistics were not systematically collected until the 1930s, and recent data collection methodology changes and incomplete reporting create gaps in comparability.

Primary Sources

Rated the claim 'Half True' based on crime data trends and historical comparison limitations

FBI Crime Data ExplorerOfficial Statement

Federal database of crime statistics collected through the Uniform Crime Reporting program

Federal source for criminal justice statistics including National Crime Victimization Survey data

Official FBI program that has collected crime data from law enforcement agencies since 1930

Evidence Supporting the Claim

  • Violent crime rates in 2023 and preliminary 2024 data showed significant decreases compared to recent peak years
  • FBI data indicates property crime has been declining for multiple consecutive years
  • Murder rates declined substantially in 2023 and continued downward trends into 2024 according to available reporting
  • Some crime categories reached levels not seen since the 1960s based on available FBI statistics

Evidence Against / Context

  • The FBI did not begin systematic nationwide crime data collection until 1930, making comprehensive comparisons to 1900 impossible
  • Historical crime data from 1900-1930 is incomplete and based on limited local sources rather than national reporting
  • The FBI transitioned to a new National Incident-Based Reporting System in 2021, creating data collection gaps and comparability issues
  • Participation rates in FBI crime reporting have been incomplete, with some major cities not reporting data in recent years
  • Crime rates in the 1960s and earlier periods of the 20th century were lower than current rates for some categories

Timeline

  • FBI began Uniform Crime Reporting program, establishing systematic national crime data collection

  • FBI transitioned to National Incident-Based Reporting System, affecting data collection and comparability

  • FBI reported significant declines in violent crime and murder rates for 2023

  • Preliminary data indicated continued downward trends in violent crime categories

  • Trump made statement claiming crime rate lowest in 125 years

What This Means

Structured interpretation — not opinion

  • Key takeaway 1

    Recent crime rate decreases represent significant improvements in public safety compared to the peak years of the 2010s and 2020s

  • Key takeaway 2

    The specific claim of lowest rates since 1900 cannot be verified due to absence of comprehensive national data for the first three decades of that period

  • Key takeaway 3

    Comparisons across different eras of crime reporting require consideration of methodology changes, participation rates, and data collection systems

  • Key takeaway 4

    The claim accurately reflects that crime has decreased substantially in recent years but overstates the certainty of historical comparisons spanning 125 years

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